Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed almost flat in choppy trade as investors remained cautious due to ongoing uncertainty in West Asia, relentless foreign fund outflows, and anticipation of the RBI's monetary policy decision.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that the central bank is closely monitoring whether the supply shock from the West Asia conflict will lead to a generalised price rise, potentially necessitating monetary policy action.
Jharkhand Assembly Speaker Rabindra Nath Mahato has called for the formulation of a more effective and stringent policy to curb cybercrimes, fraud, and digital scams. He highlighted the dual nature of artificial intelligence, which simplifies life but also presents serious challenges through misuse. Various experts and MLAs at a workshop emphasised the importance of cybersecurity education, personal digital responsibility, and empowering legislators to strengthen institutional resilience against cyber threats.
Indian stock markets this week will be primarily influenced by a series of corporate Q1 earnings, the evolving geopolitical situation in West Asia, and fluctuations in crude oil prices, according to market analysts.
Indian companies' overseas expansion plans are holding strong despite geopolitical tensions in West Asia, driven by structural factors like supply-chain diversification, free trade agreements, and market expansion, according to Ajay Sharma, managing director and head of banking at HSBC India.
The Indian stock market is poised for a volatile week, influenced by the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision, crucial global macroeconomic data, and the escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, according to market analysts.
Indian women's cricket captain Harmanpreet Kaur maintained the BCCI's 'No Handshake' policy with Pakistan's Fatima Sana at the toss of their T20 World Cup match, a policy reportedly initiated after a terror attack and military operation last year.
The government on Thursday restored liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supplies to commercial consumers such as hotels, restaurants and other businesses to pre-crisis levels, and lifted sector-specific restrictions imposed during the recent West Asia conflict, in a sign that energy supply concerns are easing as global markets stabilise.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept its key lending rate, the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25 per cent for the second consecutive time, citing concerns over rising energy prices, supply disruptions from the West Asia crisis, and potential inflationary pressures.
The Centre on Monday informed the Supreme Court that the Central Board of Secondary Examination has come up with a new policy for the evaluation of private students, who were affected by the cancellation of Class XII board examination in Gulf countries due to the recent Iran-US war.
Analysts predict that developments in West Asia, their impact on crude oil prices, and the trading activity of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) will be crucial factors influencing the Indian stock market this week.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised down India's GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6.6 per cent from an earlier 6.9 per cent, primarily attributing the change to elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. Despite this moderation, India is still expected to remain the world's fastest-growing major economy.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has urged an increased focus on '3Fs'-fuel, fertiliser, and forex-to maintain India's economic resilience amidst the West Asia crisis, while also criticising those who spread pessimism.
India's finance ministry anticipates inflation will remain relatively contained in the coming months, supported by a correction in crude oil prices and softening input costs following the cessation of the West Asia conflict, despite earlier spikes in wholesale and retail inflation.
Moody's Analytics predicts India will remain the fastest-growing major economy in 2026 and 2027, but its pace will moderate due to a global slowdown, geopolitical risks, and financial market volatility, despite the boost from AI demand.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has offered India's support to bring peace to West Asia during talks with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Both countries signed agreements to strengthen strategic collaborations in energy and defence.
The Sri Lankan government attributes the sharp depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar to the ongoing conflict in West Asia, citing increased costs for essential imports like gas, fertiliser, and oil.
FPIs have already withdrawn Rs 2.6 trillion from Indian equities in 2026, exceeding the outflows recorded in any previous full calendar year.
Non-resident Indians (NRIs) in the Gulf region are increasingly purchasing term life insurance policies from India, driven by geopolitical uncertainties in West Asia and the significant cost advantages offered by Indian products, with the GCC region now contributing over half of the total NRI demand.
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has expressed caution regarding 'extreme volatility' risks stemming from the West Asian conflict, which could impact global oil demand and the company's margins, while also noting that near-term retail consumption demand may remain sensitive to macro conditions. Chairman Mukesh Ambani, in the annual report, remained silent on the timeline for Jio Platforms' anticipated public listing, stating the group will 'continue to evaluate strategic pathways'.
India's retail inflation rose to 4.38 per cent in June, driven primarily by costlier food items, pushing it above the Reserve Bank of India's median target of 4 per cent for the first time under the new series.
A prolonged supply shock can transmit to lower incomes, and dampen confidence and sentiment, warns Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head-research and outreach, ICRA.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced India's growth forecast for FY27 to 6.4 per cent, citing the potential impact of higher energy prices offsetting the country's economic resilience. Despite this, India remains among the fastest-growing major economies.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
Markets will look for clear guidance on how the MPC interprets the uncertainty and what it implies for the future course of monetary policy, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
Gold and silver are expected to remain volatile with a corrective bias as investors assess the latest flare-up in the US-Iran conflict, movements in crude oil prices, and inflation data, which could reshape expectations for global interest rates, according to analysts.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar amid American demand that countries mediating the peace talks with Iran join the Abraham Accords and establish diplomatic and economic ties with Israel.
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
India has significantly improved its position as a global foreign direct investment (FDI) destination, climbing two places to 11th in 2025, with inflows surging by nearly 44 per cent to $38.89 billion, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) World Investment Report 2026.
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed concerns about inflation becoming generalised and highlighted uncertainties surrounding both inflation and growth prospects due to the West Asia conflict, according to the recently released minutes.
90 per cent of institutions recorded no improvement in international student metrics, despite government initiatives such as the Study in India programme, UGC regulations on internationalisation, and efforts to attract foreign students.
'Our leaders, including Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi, are in touch with all Opposition parties, including the DMK and the AAP.'
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
The Reserve Bank of India's Financial Stability Report indicates that the interim peace deal between the US and Iran has favourably shifted the balance of risks, reducing headwinds from the West Asia conflict. However, it cautions that exchange rate volatility could increase if crude oil prices spike due to delayed normalisation of supply chain disruptions.
The Indian government is actively developing a policy for flex-fuel vehicle adoption and aiming for 100 per cent ethanol blending in petrol to enhance energy self-reliance, particularly in light of supply disruptions from the West Asia conflict.
S&P Global Ratings projects India's economic growth to slow to 6.6 per cent in FY27, down from 7.7 per cent in FY26, citing energy stress and a potential sub-par monsoon.
'After that the burdens of an ageing population will be upon us, and the share of working age population will shrink.'
India's wholesale price inflation (WPI) increased to 9.87 per cent in June, up from 9.68 per cent in May, primarily due to significant price increases in non-food and food products, with food inflation alone rising to 5.49 per cent.
India's fiscal deficit is projected to reach 4.5 per cent of GDP for the current fiscal year, exceeding the budgeted target, as the government's policy responses to the West Asia conflict are expected to strain public finances, according to research firm BMI.
India has expressed serious concerns about the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on energy supplies and maritime stability, urging BRICS nations to find practical solutions to geopolitical challenges and unilateral sanctions.
